To be in trouble or facing difficulties, especially as a result of something you have done wrong.
This phrase has been used since the early 1500s and comes from the literal discomfort and danger of being in hot water. Historically, hot water was used as a method of torture or punishment, making the metaphorical connection to being in trouble quite direct and visceral.
The staying power of this phrase across centuries shows how effective physical metaphors can be for describing emotional or social situations. The image of being uncomfortably immersed in hot water perfectly captures the all-encompassing nature of being in serious trouble.
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