An opinion or conclusion formed on the basis of incomplete information; an educated guess or hypothesis.
From Latin conjectura meaning 'interpretation, guess,' from conjicere 'to throw together,' from con- (together) + jacere (to throw). The metaphor suggests throwing together available facts to form a conclusion.
The etymology perfectly captures the mental process - we literally 'throw together' scattered pieces of evidence to form a conjecture. In mathematics, some conjectures remain unproven for centuries, like Fermat's Last Theorem, which tantalized mathematicians for over 350 years!
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